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III. POPULATION AND HOUSING ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

National and statewide trends and pressures underlie many of the demographic shifts and
changes which affect local counties and towns. Studies of these broad trends indicate that New
Jersey and its constituent municipalities must consider new circumstances in their land use
policy and decisions. Some key demographic factors which are anticipated to affect New Jersey
and its local communities in the post-millennium era are summarized as follows:

The predominant demographic trend will continue to be a more mature New Jersey. This

maturation will be driven by the large baby-boom population born between 1946 and
1964 and now advancing into old age. In 1990 the oldest baby-boomer was 44 years old
and the youngest age 26. In 2006 the old "boomers" have turned 60 and the "youngsters"
are over 40.

Many of this large population bulge in its middle and later years will begin to search for

and purchase alternatives to detached single-family homes. Many, also, will be empty-
nesters. A significant minority will be single, divorced or separated, and widowed.
Single person households will create a sub-market for more affordable housing units.
These units, particularly rentals, will be increasingly difficult to find in the luxury and
near-luxury single-family home markets which predominate in much of Morris County.

The large population bulge created by the baby-boomers in their later years will shortly

be followed by shrinkage in the age 25 to 44-year-old cohorts. This companion trend will
result in reduced markets for the larger move-up houses as the bottom of the home buyer
pyramid shrinks. Current anecdotal data suggest a slow-down in the rate of large, single-
family home construction. This demographic driven trend will probably be reinforced by
rising interest rates and increased home heating costs over the long-term.

Within the older age spectrum there will be continued growth in the ranks of the elderly

who are 65 years old and over, as boomers move into the latter part of this decade. These
pressures suggest strengthened demand for a variety of senior housing alternatives
including age 55+ active adult communities, some health care related housing, and
traditional senior housing for those over 65.

Housing price increases and housing production are expected to slow from the more rapid

growth rates of the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s. They should advance more
moderately in the next 10 to 15 years. Long-term energy cost increases may also play a
significant role in scaling back home sizes to more moderate levels. Should interest rates
continue their current rise, and additional environmental regulations like the Highlands
legislation occur, housing production rates locally would also soften further.